CALCULATION MODEL FOR ASSESSING SHIP OPERATIONAL SAFETY CONSIDERING THE DEGRADATION OF BARRIERS AND RISK FORECASTING
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26906/SUNZ.2025.2.020Keywords:
vessel operational safety, integrated risk model, barrier degradation, technical condition of subsystems, SIRI risk index, maritime safety management, digital forecasting, probabilistic model, safety margin assessment, response time forecast, multifactorial analysis, scenario modeling, critical states, automated response, decision supportAbstract
Relevance. With the increasing complexity of the technical support of marine vessels and the introduction of autonomous control elements, there is a growing need to create models that can adaptively respond to changes in the technical condition of subsystems and external threats. A key element in safety systems is a generalized risk index, which should dynamically change depending on technical degradation and the combined impact of the environment. Object of research: an integrated model for assessing the operational safety of a ship. Purpose: to develop a method for calculating the operational safety of a ship, taking into account the degradation of safety barriers, the technical condition of subsystems and the forecast of risk dynamics. Research results. The article proposes a multilevel probabilistic model that allows calculating the risks of individual subsystems, evaluating the effectiveness of safety barriers, and forming an integrated safety index (SIRI). The model is supplemented with a block for predicting the time to a critical state and an algorithm for activating a protective response. Numerical modeling of six ship subsystems for eight typical operating scenarios was carried out. Conclusions. Implementation of the model allows for early detection of risky situations, reduction of response time, and increase of decision-making systems' information content. The model can be used as the core of digital platforms for managing the safety of ships. Scope of application of the results: intelligent ship safety management systems, autonomous navigation, automated navigation platforms.Downloads
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